By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
TechgoonduTechgoondu
  • Audio-visual
  • Enterprise
    • Software
    • Cybersecurity
  • Gaming
  • Imaging
  • Internet
  • Media
  • Mobile
    • Cellphones
    • Tablets
  • PC
  • Telecom
Search
© 2023 Goondu Media Pte Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: Decisions made with data still require sound judgement
Share
Aa
TechgoonduTechgoondu
Aa
  • Audio-visual
  • Enterprise
  • Gaming
  • Imaging
  • Internet
  • Media
  • Mobile
  • PC
  • Telecom
Search
  • Audio-visual
  • Enterprise
    • Software
    • Cybersecurity
  • Gaming
  • Imaging
  • Internet
  • Media
  • Mobile
    • Cellphones
    • Tablets
  • PC
  • Telecom
Follow US
© 2023 Goondu Media Pte Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Techgoondu > Blog > Enterprise > Decisions made with data still require sound judgement
EnterpriseInternet

Decisions made with data still require sound judgement

Alfred Siew
Last updated: November 13, 2016 at 11:05 PM
Alfred Siew Published November 12, 2016
5 Min Read
SHARE
PHOTO: iStockphoto
PHOTO: iStockphoto

How wrong the polls were. After Donald Trump stunned the world by winning the White House this week, one common sentiment is how “off” the numbers were in gauging the ground sentiment.

Going into the big day, the real estate mogul had between a 1 and 30 per cent chance of winning, according to a good number of polls in the United States. Yet, he staged one of the most shocking of upsets.

One reason thrown up now is that this was an unusual or outlier of an election. Perhaps it was a “black swan” event that was nearly impossible to predict. Nothing about Trump’s campaign was usual, you could argue.

Yet another reason could be that the polls were not representative. Many groups that came out to vote this time, for example, did not do so before, so they were not taken into account when pollsters weighted their findings.

Whatever the reason, one thing is clear – the numbers don’t match the result. Either the data was not analysed correctly or everyone got the wrong data in the mix.

For Hillary Clinton, the result was devastating. Based on what the data told them, her campaign may not have paid as much attention to places where she believed she was clearly ahead, such as in Democratic strongholds like Pennsylvania, which she eventually lost.

This is also a wake-up call for many others who have been pushing for data – not gut feel, intuition or experience – to be the biggest factor in making important decisions.

At meetings in boardrooms everywhere, data has been trotted out as a means to win arguments. It has been used to chart an organisation’s direction, from how Netflix displays its content on your TV to how a government rolls out e-services to citizens.

Unfortunately, if you have the wrong analysis from your data, you make a fatefully wrong decision. Data-led or data-driven management may be trendy now, but it has issues.

For one, data usually gives you a probability, not an flawless prediction, of what may happen. Many adherents of new data models, however, are so certain they believe things are deterministic.

Interestingly, Trump’s camp reportedly had a data model that predicted a win for him. This contradicted what the majority of polls found.

Hindsight is easy, sure. The important thing is not that one camp was right, while the other wasn’t. It’s that there are several outcomes that can be predicted from various pools of data.

In other words, there isn’t a sure-fire way of making the right decisions based solely or mainly on data. For many people seeking absolutism in the ongoing data revolution, the Trump win will have shaken their faith in the newfound religion.

The many “ifs” and “buts” mean that clear-eyed human judgement is much needed. In the still-imperfect science of data analytics, there remain lot of uncertainties and variables that require an expert to check, verify and analyse.

While machine learning has enabled computers to better see patterns and identify outliers, the technology often still needs people to find and input the data – the right kind. As the saying goes, rubbish in, rubbish out.

When the experts get things right, they are lauded as geniuses, like the folks behind President Barack Obama’s campaigns in the past. When they fail, as with Clinton this week, they are said to have taken their eyes off some important things.

Between the two extremes, however, is the reality that data isn’t always right. Nor is it an infallible source of wisdom to base important decisions on. And even when everything works, sometimes you can’t change the outcome.

Clinton seemed destined to be her country’s first woman president. In the end, more women backed Trump, a man who had boasted about being able to molest women because he was rich. Analyse that.

You Might Also Like

Five ways the Roborock S8 robot vacuum will change the way you clean your home

After another DBS outage, is it time to make banks publicly report service uptime?

IT leaders must manage the tension point between application development and security by embracing a DevSecOps approach

SPTel offers multi-network eSIM service to businesses running IoT apps

As TikTok faces a possible ban in the US, should users elsewhere be worried?

TAGGED: Big data, data analytics, data-led decision making, think, US presidential elections

Sign up for the TG newsletter

Never miss anything again. Get the latest news and analysis in your inbox.

By signing up, you agree to our Terms of Use and acknowledge the data practices in our Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe at any time.
Alfred Siew November 12, 2016
Share this Article
Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Whatsapp LinkedIn Copy Link Print
Share
Avatar photo
By Alfred Siew
Follow:
Alfred is a writer, speaker and media instructor who has covered the telecom, media and technology scene for more than 20 years. Previously the technology correspondent for The Straits Times, he now edits the Techgoondu.com blog and runs his own technology and media consultancy.
Previous Article US presidential election generated record online traffic: Akamai
Next Article Goondu DIY: Hooking up the little-known ARC feature on your smart TV
Leave a comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Stay Connected

Facebook Like
Twitter Follow

Latest News

Five ways the Roborock S8 robot vacuum will change the way you clean your home
Internet March 31, 2023
After another DBS outage, is it time to make banks publicly report service uptime?
Enterprise Internet March 30, 2023
Xiaomi 13 Pro review: A photography powerhouse with 1-inch image sensor
Cellphones Mobile March 29, 2023
IT leaders must manage the tension point between application development and security by embracing a DevSecOps approach
Cybersecurity Enterprise Software March 29, 2023
//

Techgoondu.com is published by Goondu Media Pte Ltd, a company registered and based in Singapore.

.

Started in June 2008 by technology journalists and ex-journalists in Singapore who share a common love for all things geeky and digital, the site now includes segments on personal computing, enterprise IT and Internet culture.

banner banner
Everyday DIY
PC needs fixing? Get your hands on with the latest tech tips
READ ON
banner banner
Leaders Q&A
What tomorrow looks like to those at the leading edge today
FIND OUT
banner banner
Advertise with us
Discover unique access and impact with TG custom content
SHOW ME

 

 

POWERED BY READYSPACE
The Techgoondu website is powered by and managed by Readyspace Web Hosting.

TechgoonduTechgoondu
Follow US

© 2023 Goondu Media Pte Ltd. All Rights Reserved | Privacy | Terms of Use | Advertise | About Us | Contact

Join Us!

Never miss anything again. Get the latest news and analysis in your inbox.

Zero spam, Unsubscribe at any time.
 

Loading Comments...
 

    Welcome Back!

    Sign in to your account

    Lost your password?